Start with the work
List the tasks you need to complete in a typical week. Record how often each task occurs, its expected size and the standard an accepted result must meet. Keep task volume separate from task importance. A rare task can still need your best available model.
Count the full workflow. Include context, tool use, failed attempts and review. State how you count parallel agents so that their work enters the forecast once. Mark estimates that still need usage records.
Use Model Selection to compare routes against a workload. The selector uses benchmark task costs and inferred allowances. Treat its capacity figures as conditional estimates.
Compare the purchase and the route
Use Token plans to inspect the catalogue. For each candidate purchase, check access to the exact model, effort setting, interface and required tools. Check shared pools, model limits and their reset windows separately.
Assign each task to an eligible model and setting. That assignment affects both quality and estimated capacity. Record which evidence supports each estimate. An API price, a benchmark task cost and a consumer subscription allowance answer different questions.
Include required extras in the monthly bill. Check the budget after adding them. A plan combination also needs a usable alternative when its primary provider cannot serve the work.
Set the reserve explicitly
Compare estimated capacity with forecast demand in the same units and time window. Headroom is capacity minus demand. Check the reserve as a separate condition.
The essay uses a provisional reserve of 1.5 times average demand. This is the author's starting assumption. Test it against busy periods and actual failures at usage limits before adopting it for your work.
Read the worked example
The Token Department essay uses synthetic plans and models. Its workload is 20 completed workflows per week. The provisional reserve target is 30. All prices, scores and limits in this example are invented inputs.
At US$80 per month, Plan A provides 43.6 estimated work units with Model E Medium, at a synthetic quality score of 82.4. Plan B with Model Q High costs US$140, provides 32.7 work units and scores 88.1. Both cover the example's workload and reserve.
The extra US$60 buys 5.7 synthetic quality points. Choose between them using the acceptance standard and the value of reduced review or rework. These figures illustrate a decision rule. They establish no current provider price or measured workflow capacity.
Check actual value
Use Plan value to inspect the comparison. Then record accepted work, total spend and the review needed to obtain it. Keep failed attempts and unused capacity visible.
Review the forecast before renewal. Check where capacity ran out, which routes required more review and whether the alternative provider could complete the work. Update the plan allocation from those records.
This guide draws on the essay. Its benchmark snapshot was captured on 11 October 2026. No live prices or account limits were refreshed for this guide. Exact plan eligibility and usable capacity need evidence for the intended service and workload.